Poll Position in Senate District 14
Even before campaign finance improprieties threatened to derail his path to a second term, Hank Erwin was not in a particularly strong political position. Multiple conservative-leaning interest groups have made efforts to lure a high profile opponent to take on the controversial Erwin. In fact ALFA even commissioned a poll in November to gauge Erwin's vulnerability and lure challengers into the race. The poll tested head-to-head matchups pitting Erwin against potential GOP challengers Ex State Sen Bill Armistead, State Reps Mike Hill and Cam Ward, and Shelby County Commissioner Jon Parker.
The results are as follows:
Armistead 58% - Erwin 35%
Hill 54% - Erwin 35%
Ward 54% - Erwin 36%
Parker 38% - Erwin 36%
Now the good news for Erwin is that Armistead, Hill, and Ward are not expected to run. But with Erwin seemingly stuck at 36% in a two-man race, his political fortunes don't appear especially bright either. With Shelby County Commissioner Jon Parker and political consultant George Oldroyd already opposing Erwin (and with the possibility of an expanding field should the campaign finance flap continue to grow), Hank Erwin looks to have an uphill path to a second term.
With only a handful of incumbents facing strong challengers, Hank Erwin's re-election bid is shaping up to be one of the more compelling primary races and Erwin one of the most vulnerable incumbents.