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Alabama Elections Directory 2006

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Wednesday, February 08, 2006

New Poll Gives Riley Slight Lead

Rasmussen Reports conducted a poll in late January testing potential general election matchups in the Alabama governor's race. See the Rasmussen site for information on the methodology and their brief analysis of the results. The results are as follows:


Riley (R): 47%
Baxley (D): 40%

Riley (R): 49%
Siegelman (D): 40%

Baxley (D): 50%
Moore (R): 39%

Siegelman (D): 46%
Moore (R): 40%

Obviously Riley is ahead and in the most enviable current position. But it has to be a little distressing to his supporters that he can't break 50% even against a candidate with as much baggage as Don Siegelman. Since his successful handling of Hurricane Katrina events have generally been favorable to the governor. But this poll shows that he still has some work to do. Of course his $4 million warchest will be an asset down the stretch.

This poll should also encourage the Baxley camp as it shows her poised to give Riley a serious race and if she gets a couple of breaks then maybe even come out on top.

Obviously Roy Moore's numbers are pretty bad, but surprisingly enough Don Siegelman doesn't seem to be as mortally wounded as most observers have estimated. Depending on the result of his trial, maybe it will turnout that the results of his demise have been greatly exaggerated.

65 Comments:

Anonymous AEA Polydactyl said...

Baxley has not done one thing to give voters a reason to support her. yesterday on montgomery tv, siegelman called riley a liar and said his boy, troy king was running around all over alabama throwing holy water on gambling.
given the corrupt nature of the democratic party in alabama, it wouldnt surprise me to learn that baxley is merely a shill until siegelman buys his way out of his jailbird suit.

1:47:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Moore's star seems to be dimming more and more each day that passes. He miscalculated greatly in abandoning what was two years ago the all important monument in an attempt to attract needed moderate and old line Republican voters. He has failed to attract moderates or traditional conservatives and ticked off his minority base. He has shown everyone that he is after all only a politician and a poor one at that.

1:59:00 PM  
Blogger spacemonkey said...

Sad we have so little to choose from.

2:11:00 PM  
Blogger TeeRob said...

The Demo establishment wants Baxley very badly and not because she is one of them but because of the 4 running for Gov. she would be by far the most easily to manipulate.
She is so scared to make a decision on anything without calling Gov. Hubbert first she would be an absolute disaster as a leader. In the Senate her only responsibility is to control the gavel but also to cast the deciding vote in the event of a tie. She has only had one opportunity to do that in the past 4 years and she abstained on that vote.

2:31:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's good to see that the Riley syncophants on this page are concerned about Lucy Baxley. That would explain the immediate and predictable -- and entirely unfounded -- attacks on her character.

Face it, folks, your boy has the same ethical problems as Siggy (bio-tech contrib., Scanlon, etc.). Let's hope he doesn't meet the same fate.

By the way, given the evangelical bent of many posters to this blog, it's hard to understand why there hasn't been the typical spleen venting over the info that BioTech may be involved in human cloning research. And they want to set up shop right here in Alabama? On our dime?

3:41:00 PM  
Anonymous Publius said...

The real story in these numbers, and rasmussen is not something you use to determine viability, is baxley's failure to develop a message against an indicted thief.
and rumor says a gay one at that.
I agree with the other poster about calling paul hubbert every 5 minutes. she has never had an original thought and at 69 old years, isnt likely to find one.
I also agree with spacemonkey that alabama is a sad place. do we even deserve to be a state?
thieves, crooks, liars, shady politicians, god squadders, and other leeches affect their will through pac to pac transfers and all we get is to scream on a blog.
But, i did hear this morning a new federal grand jury is on the way.

3:52:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Since it's so easy here to throw out allegations without even a shred of evidence, permit me to pose the following question: On what proof do you make the statement that Lucy Baxley calls Hubbert "every 5 minutes" or that "She is so scared to make a decision on anything without calling Gov. Hubbert first...?" I'd venture a guess neither of you have any idea how to even get to Hubbert's office let alone his phone records.

One of these days it will dawn on you morons that your credibility, at least to other readers of this blog, is zero thanks to your juvenile posts that apparently feed your need for exhibitionism but lend little or nothing to any actual discourse on the state of politics in Alabama.

4:16:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

DRAFT TYSON FOR GOV.
GET STRANGE AS LG
and
DAVID WHETSTONE AS AG

5:38:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

If being ahead by 9 percentage points is a slight lead, what does a commanding lead look like?

6:40:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

7 points is a slight lead...

Don't think so?

How about an 8 point lead:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Virginia%20Governor.htm

7:05:00 PM  
Blogger PoliSciZac said...

I think a 7 point lead over Baxley (who seems to be the favorite for the Dem nomination) is indeed a slight lead. It's only 3 or 4 points outside the margin of error. But even more noteworthy I think is the fact that Riley is stuck below 50%. Conventional wisdom has that as an ominous sign for incumbents.

8:06:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Riley folks are worried. The fact is he RAISED taxes by assessing property taxes every year and not every four. Now, instead of standing up and saying "yes i did that and it was the right thing to do" he has tried to wiggle his way out of it and saying he had too. He is NO leader either.

11:25:00 PM  
Anonymous AEAhepaticpaul said...

baxley calls hubbert every 5 minutes because her campaign manager mike martin is a butt boy for hubbert and the trial lawyers. he will sell her down the river in due time, of course when hubbert tells him to.
my god, you people are so stupid to think otherwise. her manager has never had a real job in his life that hubbert didnt arrange, in 20 years.

12:30:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Riley never told the truth a day in his life... He's a tax raising Hypocrite... no more no less

12:31:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

At least riley isnt an indicted gay thief

8:56:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You go Governor Riley we definetely need four more years not four" Moore" years.H.B.

8:58:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Reappraisal every year doesn't automatically mean an increase in property tax. Some property like mine in Montgomery hasn't appreciated in 5 years because of the crime and white flight to Autauga and Elmore Counties. That may very well be true in other counties as well. If it has appreciated I think it is better that it is spread out over 4 years than be hit with a large increase all at once. This is a red herring issue dependant upon half truths and outright lies by Moore and his cultists.

10:04:00 AM  
Anonymous David in Cullman said...

even if you dont like riley, consider the alternatives. it is always hold your nose and vote in alabama. we are just an afflicted people here. its almost like alabama was founded as a penal colony and today reaps the genetic harvest of political procreation of inbred half wits and outright theives. we deserve nothing else but a sideshow run by carnival barkers. Shoot at least the carnival leaves town when the show is over, but in alabama they run the town and never leave.

10:29:00 AM  
Blogger Pastor John said...

roy moore's star is not dimming. the masons are trying to discredit him

7:42:00 PM  
Blogger Pastor John said...

and the homosexuals as well

7:42:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Is the Trilateral Commission, too? Look out, here come the black copters!

8:21:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You guys have got to be kidding me. Baxley is the only candidate that has any backbone. She's also the only one who doesn't spend their entire tenure bowing down to big business only, while silently destructing rural Alabama.

I also don't see the whole Hubbard issue. Mrs. Baxley would do more for education in this state than any of the other three loonies.

And you're right...Alabama voters have had to turn their nose adn vote in the past, but for once...this registered Republican will proudly vote. That vote is for Mrs. Baxley, ladies and gentlemen.

10:44:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Is this the high level of discourse we want on this blog? Name calling of Riley and Siegelman? Why can't we just discuss the real issues, like electoral math? The main point is that I would like to see a list of the incumbent Governors from ANY state who have been reelected when they don't break 50% in the polls. To not admit that Riley is in trouble is simply ridiculous. If things are as great as he says they are, then he should be mopping this weak field.

8:58:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The National Republican establishment will never back Moore. What's left of the Rove machine will be unleashed with unmitigated fury against Moore. The one black mark on Rove's CV is the fact that Moore was the only candidate to defeat a member of his BCA backed slate of judges in the 90's. This will be personal for Rove.

9:03:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

you are exactly right about rove. also consider bush is lame duck president and this is also roves final hurrah. bush and rove will destroy anthing in their path.
And siegelman thinks he is getting out alive? hahahahah

9:39:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You can add to that Moore's lapdog, Parker's defeat of one of Rove's backed judicial candidates two years back as well as Moore's campaigning for Perouka over Bush. Rove don't take no prisoners.

10:46:00 AM  
Blogger The Alabama Moderate said...

"indicted gay thief"? This is getting ridiculous.

And yes, 7 points could very well be defined as a "slight lead" considering that the margin of error is usually around +-3 points. Also, considering the Rove element, this will eventually get much nastier.

12:32:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This blog gets worse every day. It started off pretty good. But I guess as it gets closer to election time, the campaign workers for everybody running for governor, lt. gov., AG, etc. start filling it up with their nonsense.

1:49:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

And what substantive contribution do you think you added with your post? Light a candle. Don't curse the darness.

3:58:00 PM  
Blogger CNH_320 said...

Lucy has exhibited lots of backbone. Remember her proposal to, um, well ... Surely you'll recall her courageous stand on, uh .... Well, at lest you know that she sticks to her principles, like, well, um ........

Fact is Lucy is a blank slate. Can't much understand why anyone would like her or her hate her. Lets face it, "I love Lucy" is hardly a governing philosophy. The problem for Lucy is, she's quickly becoming defined by those she's associating with - Hubbert and the AEA - who were at her campaign announcement and are staffing her campaign.

Baxley needs to tell us what she would do as governor. In other words: "Lucy, you got some 'splainin' to do."

4:16:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Light a candle. Don't curse the darkness"????

Are you serious? I agree with that other poster. This whole blog curses the darkness runs people down.

5:39:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

If the female candidate ran under her current spouse's name, as Lucy Smith, she would have been laughed out of the arena long ago.

Lucy Baxley is a know-nothing who would be at the beck and call of Paul Hubbert if elected to the governor's office.

3:21:00 AM  
Anonymous bill baxley said...

what if she ran as lucy 'marie pratt baxley' baxley?

9:18:00 PM  
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