AlabamaElections

Insight into the always fascinating world of Alabama elections...




Alabama Elections Directory 2006

Got a Tip?(Anonymity Guaranteed) Complaints, Compliments, Corrections? Interested in Guest Blogging? E-mail me.

Tuesday, January 24, 2006

HD 31: Mask/Whorton GOP Primary Preview

Today voters in State House District 31 (parts of Elmore and Coosa counties) will go to the polls to select a Republican nominee to face Democrat Bobby Payne in the Feb 28 special election to fill the seat left vacant by the November death of longtime State Rep Jack Venable (D-Tallassee). The winner of the general election will provide the victorious party with early momentum in the battle for control of the legislature.

But before we can focus on the general election, a GOP nominee must emerge from today's primary. I discussed the race earlier in the process (focusing on the district, the candidates, and a private poll) and yesterday the Montgomery Advertiser had a final wrap up before the vote. Also if you're interested in policy, check out each candidates' guest piece in the Advertiser (including Democrat Payne) as well as the Wetumpka Herald's moderation of a quasi debate between the two Republicans.

There is little doubt that Elmore County Commissioner Don Whorton began the race as the frontrunner against economic development consultant Barry Mask. Whorton's two terms on the county commission gave him name recognition and political experience that Mask could not match. However, Whorton's tenure on the commission is not an unvarnished positive as he was forced to take controversial stands and developed more than a few detractors.

However, the short special election campaign (made even shorter by Christmas and New Years) left Mask's work cut out for him. Mask does seem to be well thought of with plenty of connections, both locally and in Montgomery, but raising his name ID to a sufficient level to win an election (70% or so) in such a short period is a difficult task.

The campaign has not been altogether uplifting either. Both candidates have run television advertising and conducted direct mailing. And Mask has accused the Whorton camp of "push polling", a political tactic akin to smearing your opponent under the guise of a traditional telephone poll. In this case Mask has taken umbrage that Whorton (or his allies) would label Mask a lobbyist.

This should be a relatively close race as Mask has no doubt closed the wide gap that existed when the race began. However, I don't believe Mask has accrued the financial edge many observers expected due to his close ties to some in Montgomery. I've been told that Whorton has been competitive with (if not actually ahead of) Mask in terms of television ad buys (the lifeblood of a campaign). I am skeptical that Mask has had enough time or money to sufficiently spread his name and message to the point where he can overtake Whorton, even considering Whorton's not inconsiderable weaknesses.

Special elections are incredibly volatile as voter turnout is usually abysmal. If one candidate can turn out their supporters at a slightly higher clip than their opponent, then that can make all the difference. Yet even though special elections are notoriously difficult to predict, as this is an elections site I feel obligated to weigh in.

I believe that if this had been a more traditional campaign then Mask might well have won, but given the unusual circumstances of this campaign, I don't think Mask had the time or means to make up the significant head start Whorton developed over several years in Elmore county politics.

Prediction -
Don Whorton -- 55%
Barry Mask -- 45%

Results should come in the late evening and I'll post them as soon as I can find them.

10 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

The push-poll wasn't just "accused" it actually happened and its wrong. Whorton is a dirty politician. He felt a little afraid he was trailing and threw in the kitchen sink.

If you are right and Whorton does win tomorrow I hope he doesn't show up to the floor of the State House as drunk as he is at Commission meetings.

1:19:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

On above post drunk was referring to drunk with power.

1:23:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

well it sounds like the dirty mafia boss hubbert is up to his old tricks of push polling. Im sure he is buying votes and tampering with the machines also.

8:32:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think you are putting too much stock into television advertising in a special election, Mask is doing more direct mail and door-to-door. That is what wins special elections.

12:24:00 PM  
Blogger PoliSciZac said...

You may be correct, I would not be at all surprised to see Mask win either. Also I've heard anecdotal evidence of very low turnout, not sure that favors one canddiate over the other though.

1:23:00 PM  
Blogger oakleyses said...

nike air max, red bottom shoes, ray ban sunglasses, louis vuitton handbags, longchamp outlet online, louis vuitton outlet, christian louboutin outlet, michael kors outlet online, nike shoes, tiffany jewelry, michael kors outlet online, burberry outlet online, chanel handbags, true religion, prada outlet, tiffany and co jewelry, louis vuitton, ray ban outlet, michael kors outlet store, coach purses, nike free, tory burch outlet, oakley vault, prada handbags, coach outlet store online, nike air max, christian louboutin shoes, polo ralph lauren outlet, christian louboutin, louis vuitton outlet online, polo ralph lauren, oakley sunglasses, kate spade handbags, burberry outlet online, kate spade outlet online, true religion outlet, longchamp handbags, longchamp outlet, gucci handbags, jordan shoes, michael kors outlet online, coach outlet, michael kors outlet, louis vuitton outlet, coach outlet, michael kors outlet online, cheap oakley sunglasses

7:55:00 PM  
Blogger oakleyses said...

nike air max, louis vuitton pas cher, air max pas cher, longchamp pas cher, ray ban pas cher, longchamp, nike free pas cher, mulberry, lululemon, converse pas cher, burberry pas cher, true religion jeans, nike blazer pas cher, tn pas cher, lacoste pas cher, air jordan, ray ban uk, ralph lauren pas cher, true religion outlet, ralph lauren, sac louis vuitton, chaussure louboutin, nike free, michael kors uk, hollister, abercrombie and fitch, hollister, north face, sac michael kors, north face pas cher, sac vanessa bruno, michael kors canada, nike air force, oakley pas cher, scarpe hogan, barbour, nike roshe, louis vuitton uk, guess pas cher, louis vuitton, new balance pas cher, nike roshe run, nike air max, vans pas cher, hermes pas cher, air max, timberland

8:03:00 PM  
Blogger oakleyses said...

soccer jerseys, mont blanc pens, wedding dresses, reebok shoes, north face jackets, ugg boots, ugg outlet, new balance outlet, nike huarache, roshe run, canada goose outlet, ugg, canada goose, mcm handbags, marc jacobs outlet, babyliss pro, longchamp, giuseppe zanotti, hollister, p90x workout, asics shoes, uggs outlet, uggs on sale, valentino shoes, celine handbags, canada goose outlet, insanity workout, ferragamo shoes, north face outlet, lululemon outlet, soccer shoes, instyler ionic styler, mac cosmetics, rolex watches, herve leger, abercrombie and fitch, nfl jerseys, birkin bag, beats headphones, chi flat iron, nike trainers, ghd, bottega veneta, vans outlet, canada goose outlet, ugg soldes, jimmy choo shoes

8:19:00 PM  
Blogger oakleyses said...

v

8:28:00 PM  
Blogger oakleyses said...

air max, wedding dress, canada goose pas cher, ugg, toms outlet, canada goose, oakley, pandora jewelry, hollister, replica watches, baseball bats, moncler, moncler outlet, vans, juicy couture outlet, canada goose uk, hollister canada, timberland shoes, converse, hollister clothing, ralph lauren, pandora uk, moncler, iphone 6 case, lancel, moncler, louis vuitton canada, nike air max, moncler, uggs canada, links of london uk, karen millen, ray ban, louboutin, canada goose, thomas sabo uk, gucci, coach outlet, parajumpers outlet, moncler, supra shoes, converse shoes, swarovski uk, pandora charms, swarovski jewelry, moncler, montre femme, juicy couture outlet

8:28:00 PM  

Post a Comment

<< Home

Blogarama - The Blog Directory Politics Blog Top Sites