Insight into the always fascinating world of Alabama elections...

Alabama Elections Directory 2006

Got a Tip?(Anonymity Guaranteed) Complaints, Compliments, Corrections? Interested in Guest Blogging? E-mail me.

Wednesday, November 23, 2005

A Closer Look at the Looming Special Election in House District 31

With the passing of Jack Venable, House District 31 will soon host a special election that could signal a sea-change within the State House. Though Venable easily held this district for the past 30-plus years, Republicans will surely target this district and attempt to use a win here as a springboard into the 2006 elections.

Governor Riley will most likely announce the dates for the special election in the next week or two. Recent special elections have taken about 5 months to see a successor take office and that is probably a reasonable estimation for this seat as well. Though we don't know the exact dates for the special election, it is obvious this district will see a competitive race to succeed Venable.

The district itself contains portions of both Coosa and Elmore county. Looking at the precinct level results from the 2002 elections it appeared to me that the actual voting percentage broke down to around 79% from Elmore and 21% from Coosa. This is good news for the GOP as Elmore county is a Republican stronghold and looks likely to outweigh the Democratic lean of Coosa.

More specifically I also crunched the 2002 Governor's race numbers from the district. My calculations had Riley carrying the district with 61% to Siegelman's 39%. I used the governor's race numbers because I thought it would be as good an indicator as any of the partisan feelings of the district since the race was essentially 50/50 statewide.

I should stipulate that it's possible I misread some of the Excel tables, so some of the figures could be a little off. And of course a state house race has a different dynamic than a governor's race, but I think these numbers give a sense of the general GOP lean of the district.

Democrats best hope would be to run Venable's widow or perhaps one of his children as someone with the Venable name could take advantage of the goodwill accrued throughout the decades. However, even Venable's margins decreased over the years as his district grew more Republican. 2002 saw Venable's lowest victory margin as he won 58% of the vote.

The candidates and campaigns will certainly determine who the next representative is, but Democrats have their work cut out for them to hold the seat. And Republicans have an opportunity to flip a Democratic seat before the 06 elections and show they mean business in the battle for control of the State House.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Keep up the good work » »

2:01:00 PM  
Blogger oakleyses said...

nike air max, red bottom shoes, ray ban sunglasses, louis vuitton handbags, longchamp outlet online, louis vuitton outlet, christian louboutin outlet, michael kors outlet online, nike shoes, tiffany jewelry, michael kors outlet online, burberry outlet online, chanel handbags, true religion, prada outlet, tiffany and co jewelry, louis vuitton, ray ban outlet, michael kors outlet store, coach purses, nike free, tory burch outlet, oakley vault, prada handbags, coach outlet store online, nike air max, christian louboutin shoes, polo ralph lauren outlet, christian louboutin, louis vuitton outlet online, polo ralph lauren, oakley sunglasses, kate spade handbags, burberry outlet online, kate spade outlet online, true religion outlet, longchamp handbags, longchamp outlet, gucci handbags, jordan shoes, michael kors outlet online, coach outlet, michael kors outlet, louis vuitton outlet, coach outlet, michael kors outlet online, cheap oakley sunglasses

7:52:00 PM  
Blogger oakleyses said...

nike air max, louis vuitton pas cher, air max pas cher, longchamp pas cher, ray ban pas cher, longchamp, nike free pas cher, mulberry, lululemon, converse pas cher, burberry pas cher, true religion jeans, nike blazer pas cher, tn pas cher, lacoste pas cher, air jordan, ray ban uk, ralph lauren pas cher, true religion outlet, ralph lauren, sac louis vuitton, chaussure louboutin, nike free, michael kors uk, hollister, abercrombie and fitch, hollister, north face, sac michael kors, north face pas cher, sac vanessa bruno, michael kors canada, nike air force, oakley pas cher, scarpe hogan, barbour, nike roshe, louis vuitton uk, guess pas cher, louis vuitton, new balance pas cher, nike roshe run, nike air max, vans pas cher, hermes pas cher, air max, timberland

8:00:00 PM  
Blogger oakleyses said...

soccer jerseys, mont blanc pens, wedding dresses, reebok shoes, north face jackets, ugg boots, ugg outlet, new balance outlet, nike huarache, roshe run, canada goose outlet, ugg, canada goose, mcm handbags, marc jacobs outlet, babyliss pro, longchamp, giuseppe zanotti, hollister, p90x workout, asics shoes, uggs outlet, uggs on sale, valentino shoes, celine handbags, canada goose outlet, insanity workout, ferragamo shoes, north face outlet, lululemon outlet, soccer shoes, instyler ionic styler, mac cosmetics, rolex watches, herve leger, abercrombie and fitch, nfl jerseys, birkin bag, beats headphones, chi flat iron, nike trainers, ghd, bottega veneta, vans outlet, canada goose outlet, ugg soldes, jimmy choo shoes

8:16:00 PM  
Blogger oakleyses said...

air max, wedding dress, canada goose pas cher, ugg, toms outlet, canada goose, oakley, pandora jewelry, hollister, replica watches, baseball bats, moncler, moncler outlet, vans, juicy couture outlet, canada goose uk, hollister canada, timberland shoes, converse, hollister clothing, ralph lauren, pandora uk, moncler, iphone 6 case, lancel, moncler, louis vuitton canada, nike air max, moncler, uggs canada, links of london uk, karen millen, ray ban, louboutin, canada goose, thomas sabo uk, gucci, coach outlet, parajumpers outlet, moncler, supra shoes, converse shoes, swarovski uk, pandora charms, swarovski jewelry, moncler, montre femme, juicy couture outlet

8:25:00 PM  

Post a Comment

<< Home

Blogarama - The Blog Directory Politics Blog Top Sites