I (along with most other political watchers) expect him to challenge Bob Riley in the GOP primary for governor. However, given Moore's unpredictable nature, a few other possibilites are rumored:
Alternative Scenario 1: Moore runs for governor as an independent or under the Constitution Party.
Alternative Scenario 2: Moore runs for Chief Justice again.
Alternative Scenario 3: Moore sits out the 2006 elections.
I don't know which , if any, of these alternatives is more likely than the others. Moore has indicated in the past that if he does run, it will "more than likely" be as a Republican, but rumors still swirl about a possible independent or third party bid.
If Bob Riley's recent uptick in popularity has given Moore pause about challenging the incumbent, then maybe a race to regain the Chief Justice's office would make sense. Though Moore's political savvy is usually overlooked due to his ... unconventional style, I don't think he'd run in a race he thought he would lose. But even though Riley has had a good couple of months, I doubt Moore and his allies view the race as fundamentally altered from its original state.
Of course Moore could simply say that he's going to keep his political powder dry and feels he's a more effective advocate for his positions as private citizen. Yet, most politicians don't hold organized, publicized events just to deliver a non-announcement.
But Roy Moore has never been "most politicians".
Whatever his decision, we should know in a matter of hours.