Another Day, Another Poll
I'll get right to the results:
The Mobile Register has plenty of solid analysis and even some of the internal subset information, so you'll want to read that.
My general reaction to the poll is that it confirms how wide open the race is. The only matchup that wouldn't be close is a Baxley/Moore race. From these numbers, I'd expect Baxley to win by double digits.
But although Riley's camp is probably pleased with these numbers, they still have to be worried that he can't seem to break (or even get especially close) to the 50% number he'll need for a clear win. The 44% against Baxley surely worries the Riley folks, but I am more surprised that Riley can't break the 50% mark against the recently sore-luck Siegelman.
Similarly, as I discussed last week, I don't understand why Lucy Baxley isn't polling farther ahead of Don Siegelman. Baxley only runs 2%-4% ahead of Don Siegelman after arguably the worst month of his political career? If Baxley can't pull away from Siegelman with all of his self-inflicted wounds, what will happen if Siegelman is actually able to get past his legal troubles and develop some sort of momentum?
Ultimately, this poll provides some warning signs and a glimmer of hope for each candidate. Riley's resurrected his political career post Katrina; Lucy Baxley looks strong against either Republican; and even Roy Moore and Don Siegelman are still in the hunt.
There's roughly 13 months until Alabama voters will finally weigh in on this race, but I expect it to seem like a lot longer.